Tuesday, 1 January 2019

Disclaimer

All opinions expressed on this blog are the individual’s personal perspective and cannot be interpreted as a Buy/Sell indication!

It is strictly for informative purposes only!

Monday, 31 December 2018

MARKET AND/OR SHARE DIRECTION / MARK EN/OF AANDELE RIGTING




GROUP DISCUSSION:

HOW CAN I ANTICIPATE IN WHICH DIRECTION THE MARKET AND/OR MY SHARE/S MAY GO?

AFTER ANALYZING THE CHARTS, WHAT IS MY CONCLUSION?

WHAT HAS THE FEELING IN MY GUT, GOT TO DO WITH ANY OF THIS?

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Sien mekaar weer in die Nuwe Jaar!


Many regards / Baie Groete,

Hendrik de Jager.







Wednesday, 28 November 2018

Webinars presented by: Ms. Moxima Gama: Technical Analyst and Chartist

Title:
Sharetrackin Winning Shares List – Reviewing MND, NPN, SNV, CPI, PSG with IMP as share investment opportunity

Description:
We have a lot of winning shares that have made exceptional returns over the years. That is why it’s important for us to review the status of our recommended shares by hosting this webinar. During the webinar we will access if retaining those particular shares in your portfolio is profitable or not. Take profit levels will be given as an alert to close positions, so as to maximise your returns and avoid holding onto falling shares

Date and Time:

Fri, Dec 7, 2018 1:00 PM - 1:30 PM CAT





Saturday, 17 November 2018

Trading the News

A strategy to trade on earning result news.
 
Find a calendar and stocks planning to release earning results.  Pick some stocks with the following criteria: 

A.     Uptrend over two months and strong trading up into the results. Looking at a gap up on result day and short the stock.

B.     Uptrend over two months and a pullback / retracement into the results. Looking at a gap down on result day and long the stock.

C.      Downtrend over two months and strong trading down into the results. Looking at a gap down on result day and long the stock.

D.     Downtrend over two months and a pullback / rally into the results. Looking at a gap up on result day and short the stock.


 
Some examples. To start with the A and D short scenario's:
 
The A scenario. Facebook traded in an up trend over the past period.
 
 
The continue trading strongly into the upcoming result period.
 
 
Zooming in, we do see the gap up and the price started trading into the opposite direction.
 

 
Appel is a type D scenario, downtrend over two months and a pullback / rally into the results. Looking for a gap up on result day and short the stock. Results were released on 1 November 2018.

 
 
The B and C long scenario's:
 
NTRI has traded in an up trend over two months and strongly pullback into the results period. Looking for a gap down on result day and long the stock.
 
 
 
 
RNI traded in a solid downtrend over two months and strong trading down into the results. Looking for a gap down on result day and long the stock for a reversal on good news. Next support at 21100. 

 

After bottoming out, Spar has traded down 4 days before earnings were released. This classify SPP is a B scenario. The trade setup is to buy at the long-term trend a recent support level 16600.  Once the price has opened and traded down to the support level during early morning trading, the price turn back on good results and closed higher.



Note: The zones and percentages are only to assist myself om money management.

Trade with caution as the markets are very unstable and uncertain.
@Duplo123 or join us on Skype
 


Saturday, 10 November 2018

Advancing vs. Declining stocks

What can we learn from the numbers of advancing vs. declining stocks?

Since 1900 up to today stats on the Dow:
  • The median up day is +0.51%
  • The median down day is -0.50%
  • But the Dow is up 39,500% over this time.
Looking at these figures, one would say: "how's it possible, reaching 39,500% with these small daily increments?  Well it's like eating an elephant, bite by bite.

With only two numbers at the end of the day, for example 8 advancing and 32 declining stocks from the JSE Top 40 index, J200. We can mathematical play around and get to interesting conclusions.  With the difference off -24 on the Spread or 0.25% Ratio, you can probably say this does not make any sense. Presenting the data graphical sketch a different picture.
Advance/Decline Line
The advance/decline is measuring market breadth, which answers the question, "how broad is the rally?"  The AD-Line can be used alone or together with the price chart to look for divergences. A divergence suggests that a move in the price chart is unsupported by the broad market, and it should, therefore, be taken as a warning of an impending turning point in the index or market.  A traditional technical indicator, such as a moving average or a stochastic oscillator, can be applied to the chart or used to smooth the signals it gives.


A/D Line = (# of Advancing Stocks - # of Declining Stocks) + Yesterday\'s A/D Line Value
Using the AD-Line graph next to the J200 and applying the RSI oscillator, looks as follows:


At the left-top, the AD-Line graph has found resistance and has turned.

The RSI indicator at the left-bottom returned from overbought for and currently turned down.
Comparing the AD-Line with the J200 index.  At the right-top graph, we noticed that the index has tested the once support, now resistance and turned away.  This graph still looks very bearish.

The RSI on the index also returned to the 50% level and might suggest more downside.

Advance/Decline Spread
A variation on the A/D line is the A/D spread. Just as its name implies, the A/D spread charts the difference between the number of advancing stocks and declining stocks in a given market on a given day.

 
Advance/Decline Ratio
Another variation on the A/D spread is the advance/decline ratio, which divides the advancers by the decliners.

 
These two graphs are oscillators of the Advancing and Declining stocks within the J200 index.  The AD Spread is defined by subtraction and the AD Ratio by division.

Both of these oscillators have turned away from the overbought level.

Absolute Breadth Index
The absolute breadth index is a measure of internal volatility. It calculates the absolute value of the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks.


 
The chart is a representation of the volatility in the spread between advancers and decliners.  Above the horizontal line, stocks are trending and below the level, range bound. Currently we noticed that the severe bearish trend has been stopped by this indicator, crossing the horizontal line.

Breadth Thrust
Breadth thrust is an internal indicator. It is a ratio of moving averages that creates an excellent judge of market momentum.

 
Breadth thrust can be read just like a stochastic or RSI, where overbought and oversold levels are at the extremes. Divergence with the underlying price chart points to weakening momentum.

Arms Index (TRIN)
Developed by Richard Arms, TRIN is a double-ratio that divides the A/D ratio by the A/D volume ratio.  I've adapted the formula by multiplying volume and price. This is to calculate a weighted TRIN.

 
 
Both the TRIN graphs have turned bearish, but need confirmation.
 
A value of less than 0.51 means advancing stocks are getting more than their share of volume, which is bullish for the market. When the value of TRIN is more than 0.51, declining shares are taking an outsized amount of volume, which is bearish for the market.

Note that the TRIN was smoothed with a 10 day moving average and a 3 standard deviation is used to set the pivot. The graph was reversed. Above the line is bullish and below bearish.
 

Playing around with the data and information, all add up to a picture and feeling for the market.

Trade with caution as the markets are very unstable and uncertain.
@Duplo123 or join us on Skype