Friday, 15 June 2018

ALSI, J200 and the TOPI

The All Share Index (ALSI), is the overall market barometer and found in the J203 index. The J200 is a JSE index derived from Top 40 shares and the TOPI is the trading instrument based on the top 40 shares, with a little tweak.
 
When trading the Top40 instruments CFD's or Single Stock Futures, you need to zoom in on behavior.  Below we have created two graphs based on the daily high and low price movement on the J200 index.  This can be used as a volatility indicator or just to find the average to set expectancy when trading the instruments.  It also highlights the change over time.
 
 
 
More information about the constituencies can be obtained at the JSE on their website at: https://www.jse.co.za/services/market-data/indices/ftse-jse-africa-index-series
 
Another method might be helpful to draft a correlation graph on the differences between the price chart and the moving average. From this we can find or determine when to change direction or not to get involve on the wrong side of the market. From the data below (up to 14 June 2018) we can clearly seen not to get involved on the long site, but rather change direction from long to short.
 
 
Taking the Big 5 from the index, the market movers, we can clearly notice the impact they could have. About 50% of the movement.  The top 10 or 12, 75%.  These stocks needs a close eyeball.
 
 
 
When adding the top 5 stocks together and creating a referential index, the following graph represents the below result.  Though this picture is very bullish, it did not implies no short term retracements. Rather what to expect in the days / week to come.  The correlation graph is more reliant to short term trading where we can use the below info as the underlining direction.
 
 
When comparing the Top5 to the J200 we notice the same picture differently.  The Head-and-Shoulder have not played out on the J200, where it was anticipated on the Top5 chart.  But taking the correlation picture into account, we realises that it might not happens tomorrow (15 June 2018).
 

 
Playing around with the data and information, all add up to a picture and feeling for the market.

Trade with caution as the markets are very unstable and uncertain.
@Duplo123 or join us on Skype

Thursday, 14 June 2018

Trade like a Pro

Trading is the name of the game and the game is to Buy or Sell. The players are the Bulls and Bears. The playing field is between two lines and played from one to the other side.  Between Support and Resistance, the goal lines.  When playing with the Bulls and Bears on their playing field, you need to correctly identify the lines.  To score, you need to act at these lines, the goal line.  The actions are to Buy at Support and Sell at Resistance.  The battles between Bulls and Bears take place at these zones.  It’s bloody, fearless and only the Smart money, the pros and those who know the rules of the game, that are winning.  Rules like Money Management, when to sit back on your hands, when to Buy or Sell and when to take a Loss or a Profit.
 
To compete with the pro's, you need to think and prepare like them. Anybody is welcome on the trade playing field, but keep in mind who the opposition is. Think of it as you are running onto the rugby field and your opposition is the All Blacks. You might just get hurt.  Yes, on the trading field it's not fiscal, but you might just lose your money or self-confidence.  You’re thinking, not me. I'm not one of the statistics.  I'm born great?  I'm a great trader from Day One?

Tiger Woods was not born great. He has a daily practice routine:
  • 6 AM: gym for 90 minutes
  • 7:30 AM: breakfast
  • 9–11 AM: hit balls on practice range
  • 11–11:30 AM: putting
  • 11:30 AM–12:30 PM: play 9 holes
  • 12:30-1 PM: lunch
  • 1–3 PM: hit balls on practice range
  • 3–4 PM: work on short game
  • 4–5 PM: play 9 holes
  • 5–5:30 PM: hit balls on practice range
  • 5:30–6 PM: putting
Not convinced yet that you are not going to be a great trader on Day One? What if you did the following before a trading session to gain experience? 

  • Plan and execute your trade as the first experience.
  • Made detailed notes in your trading journal — that’s two experiences.
  • Discussed this setup with others — now three experiences.
  • Replayed the trade in your head — and four.
  • Made and watched your video recording of this trade — now five.
  • Met in a training room and talk with a group about this trade — and six.
  • Visualized making this trade — and seven.
  • Practiced this trade on a dedicated simulator — and 8 and 9 and 10.
With just this one trade, you can turn one trading experience into 10 plus. Developing a daily learning schedule, can help transforming one trading day of experience into 10. Pickup on your experience 10x faster. Become a pro to play with the pro's. Practise and prepare like a pro, trade like a pro.